Hot Stove SeasonWhile baseball fans in the Northeast may no longer gather around hot wood-burning stoves to warm their hands while debating the merits of trades and signings in anticipation of spring training, many are turning up the thermostat in their oil-heated homes as the temperatures dip during the nightly broadcast of SportsCenter.
The Northeast, which includes New England and the Central Atlantic regions, has traditionally been the main region using heating oil as a residential heating fuel. In 2004, 5.5 billion gallons of heating oil were sold to residential consumers in the Northeast; this comprises 82 percent of total residential heating fuel sales in the U.S. Not only do consumers in the Northeast use heating oil more than in any other region, 78 percent of all households that use heating oil as the primary heating fuel are located in the Northeast.
EIA uses the Petroleum Allocation for Defense District (PADD) boundaries as the basis for its regional petroleum supply reporting. Heating oil (high-sulfur distillate) inventories are reported for the entire East Coast (PADD I), as well as broken down into three sub-PADDs, PADD IA (New England), PADD IB (Central Atlantic), and PADD IC (Lower Atlantic). It is not unusual to see an imbalance between the relative inventories of heating oil stocks in New England and the Central Atlantic as compared to each area’s respective level of product demand. For example, in 2005, the Central Atlantic held about 69 percent of Northeast heating oil inventories even though it only accounted for 60 percent of Northeast sales (Prime Supplier sales data are used as a proxy for implied demand.)
This phenomenon is mostly a function of the hub of petroleum and shipping infrastructure located in the New York-New Jersey corridor, which is part of the Central Atlantic region. Most imports that come in from Europe to supplement heating oil supplies enter the U.S. on the East Coast, and New York Harbor is the major East Coast hub. Other waterborne shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Venezuela, and the Virgin Islands also enter into New York Harbor. Additionally, there are several pipelines that run into the region, as well as the Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware refineries. There is also a high concentration of storage available in the area due to the high volume of product moving through the region. Product will often be stored in the Central Atlantic region until temperatures drop in New England, increasing demand and pulling product northward. Recognition of these factors leads EIA analysts to evaluate Northeast (New England and Central Atlantic) inventories as an aggregate rather than their individual pieces.
The charts below illustrate the history of New England and Central Atlantic inventories compared to their 5-year average range. Although inventories in both regions are above the average range prior to the first cold snap, this winter’s weather remains a key uncertainty and will be a major determinant for how quickly heating oil stocks are drawn down this winter. Additionally, inventories for the closest substitute to heating oil, diesel fuel, are relatively tight, which could put upward price pressure on both diesel fuel and heating oil if cold weather increases distillate demand sufficiently.

Reports of Ministry of Commerce asking FMC to ban Guar seed futures trading led to sharp fall in prices. Meanwhile, FMC has clarified there is no ban on futures trading in this. However, FMC may closly monitor the price movement. Currently, Indian prices quoting higher, which is affecting exporters. Prices may remain lower in the short term

NEW YORK (AP _ Oil futures closed just shy of 61 dollars a barrel today as prices rose on forecasts of colder weather and uncertainty ahead of an OPEC meeting. Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 67 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- to 60 dollars, 99 cents.

NEW YORK (AP) _ Another off day for the dollar, which hit a fresh 20-month low against the euro Tuesday, as disappointing economic data further dimmed the prospect of higher interest rates. The price of gold fell, closing at 637 dollars, 20 cents an ounce.

Oil rose again on Tuesday on expectations that a cold spell in the US northeast this weekend would boost demand in the world's biggest heating oil market.
US crude climbed 13 cents at $US60.45 a barrel by 1740 GMT after trading as high as $US61.20 in earlier activity, adding to gains of $US1.08 on Monday. London Brent crude rose 24 cents to $60.68.
Despite the rally, oil remained stuck in a two-month trading rut of $US58-$US62 a barrel and showed few signs of resuming a climb back toward a record high of $US78.40 a barrel in mid-July.
The National Weather Service said on Monday US heating demand this week would be about 24% below normal. NYMEX heating oil futures rose 0.6% on Tuesday.
Dollar weaker
The market also found support from a weaker dollar, which traded near a 20-month low against the euro.
The market is also looking ahead to an OPEC meeting on December 14 that could result in a further output cut. OPEC agreed at an emergency meeting in October to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day.

SINGAPORE — Oil prices rose above US$61 a barrel in Asian trading Wednesday as the market considered forecasts for colder weather in the United States and next month's OPEC meeting.
In less than two weeks, the front-month crude-oil futures contract has climbed by more than US$5 a barrel, but prices are still trading within a range that has been roughly in place since the start of October.
Light sweet crude for January delivery was up 14 cents to US$61.13 a barrel in midmorning Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Barely two weeks ago, on Nov. 17, the December contract settled and expired at US$55.81 a barrel.
Prices have been rising this week after London-based newspaper Al-Hayat reported Monday that Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi had indicated that OPEC would evaluate the effect of October's decision to cut output when it meets next month in Abuja, Nigeria, and if necessary authorize another cut.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced in mid-October that it would reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day, but skepticism that the cartel members are committed to production cuts, as well as milder-than-normal U.S. temperatures this fall, have moderated prices.
Oil prices have fallen by about 23 percent since hitting an all-time trading high above $78 a barrel in mid-July. They haven't settled above $62 a barrel since Oct. 1.
Traders were also focused on reports that called for wintry U.S. weather in the West to gradually move to the East by the end of the week.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures gained 0.12 cent to US$1.7295 per gallon

Oil prices gained in Asian trade today, boosted by falling temperatures in the United States and continued weakness in the US dollar, dealers said.Comments by OPEC members that the cartel will push for another round of production cuts at its meeting next month also supported the market, they said.At 0845 IST New York's main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, was up 13 cents at $61.12 a barrel from $60.99 in the United States yesterday, its highest level in three weeks

New York - Stocks advanced modestly Tuesday after Wall Street shrugged off a sharp drop in orders for manufactured goods and took comfort in the first gain in existing home sales in eight months.
The rise in stocks came after investors showed little reaction to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that he remains concerned that inflation or a steeper-than-expected decline in the housing market could harm an already slowing economy.
In the speech, which included Bernanke's most extensive comments on the economy since this summer, he said inflation remains higher than he would like but that it should fall as the economy cools.
The Commerce Department's report that orders for durable goods fell 8.3 percent in October - the largest drop in more than six years - stoked concerns that the economy is slowing at too fast a pace. But a report from the National Association of Realtors showing a slight uptick in home sales lent support to the market although it also revealed that the median selling price fell by the steepest level on record last month.
The market's muted response followed its worst session in more than four months on Monday. John Zielinski, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, contends the market's drop was overblown and that investors could be seeing lower-than-usual liquidity. For many brokerages, Thursday marks the end of their fiscal year and they are therefore trying to lock in gains.
"The moves seem to be a little bit exaggerated based on the data points we're seeing," he said.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 14.74, or 0.12 percent, at 12,136.45, after falling 158 Monday.
Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 4.82, or 0.35 percent, at 1,386.72, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 6.69, or 0.28 percent, to 2,412.61.
Light, sweet crude oil rose 67 cents to settle at $60.99 a barrel.
Doug Sandler, chief equity strategist at Wachovia Securities, likens investors' behavior in the final month or so of the year to a nervous driver trying to steer a car while sitting too close to the windshield. Every move, he says, is exaggerated.
"You've got so many portfolio managers that are cognizant of where they stand for the year that if market moves they jump on it regardless of the direction," he said.

US DATA: US Oct durables goods orders -8.3% vs +8.7%r in Sept. Oct was the largest drop since -14% in July 2000 (Jan '04 was -8.1%), but more important is that the orders level is now below August's total. Durables ex-transport was -1.7% in its 3rd drop in 4 mos, and this is indicating a slowdown in mfg. Durables ex-defense was -6.4%. Computers & aircraft are the main decliners (civ aircraft orders -44.5% vs +198.2% in Sept).Most other categories posted small gains; an exception was a +5.1% surge in electrical eqpt. Shipments were +0.6% and Inventories +0.8%. NDCG shipments were -2.3%, indicating a slowing in business investment. Overall this was a weak report.

SAN FRANCISCO (ResourceInvestor. com) -- The dollar lost another 0.4% against the euro Monday after tumbling to a 1 1/2-year low against the euro on Friday. Gold futures gained nearly 2% as the euro traded at $1.313. Most of the speakers at the San Francisco Hard Assets Conference are in agreement - the U.S. dollar is heading lower and precious metals are heading higher.
Ron Paul, Congressman for the U.S. House of Representatives, slammed the sentiment home today when he said, "We are living on borrowed money and borrowed time and that will eventually come to an end."
"We are facing serious economic problems," he said. The fact that "the government can literally create money out of thin air is a recipe for disaster."
James Turk, founder and chairman of GoldMoney.com, said when central banks, such as the Bank of China, are diversifying away from the dollar, "there's something wrong."
However, analysts disagree about what impact a slowing U.S. economy would have on China and its demand for base metals and other pure commodities.
Yesterday, Marc Faber, Editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said that an U.S. economic slowdown will not curb China's growth. He said Asian exports will continue to rise despite a slowing U.S. economy, and thus China's demand for commodities will remain strong.
However, Paul van Eeden, President of Cranberry Capital Inc., said consumers will spend less, meaning the U.S. will import less, and this will negatively impact China with 30% of its GDP gained from exports.
Van Eeden said copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and molybdenum prices have all been driven up this year on soaring demand from Asia and speculation by financial institutions. He said a fall in demand from China would force these financial institutions to pull out completely.
In recent study entitled "The Coming Nuclear Winter Base Metals," Frank Veneroso agreed that speculation by hedge funds has resulted in the price increases in base metals.
"If hedge funds have been managing base metals prices, eventually these funds and the base metals should go the way of Amaranth," he said. "I believe it is the activities of these funds and their eventual failure that will determine the price break that begins the inevitable deep decline back to marginal cost for this complex."
He said any economic weakness somewhere around the globe would result in record sustained surpluses and a "mountain of inventory."
In an issue of the Financial Monitor, Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist of Dundee Group of Companies, actually calculated the effect that past U.S. recessions had and found that "China is not as dependent on the U.S. economy as one might have thought."
According to Murenbeeld, for the seven years (not counting 1960) that the U.S. economy was in recession, the average increase in Chinese exports as a percent of GDP was 0.14%, with a range of -0.75% in 2001 to 1.29% in 1991.
"U.S. recessions don't seem to hurt Chinese exports in any consistent manner!" Murenbeeld exclaimed.
He added that for the same seven years the change in U.S. imports as a percent of GDP averaged -0.09%, meaning that "U.S. recessions do hurt U.S. imports in a consistent manner!"
A U.S. recession might cut 1% off the Chinese exports to GDP percentage, meaning that Chinese
GDP growth is damaged by at least 1% with the loss of exports, according to the report. But simple regression analysis for the period 1980-2006, suggests a 1% rise in U.S. GDP adds 0.58% to Chinese GDP. Assuming Chinese GDP would grow at 9.6% in a world where U.S. GDP grows 3.0%, a U.S. GDP growth of -1% would knock 2.3% off the Chinese growth rate.
"This is less than one might have imagined!" Murenbeeld said. "My inclination is to suggest that Chinese exports and Chinese GDP dance to their own drummer more than to the U.S. drummer."
In other words, demand for commodities in China will not wither away in the event of a U.S. recession.
Conclusion
Regardless of whether a U.S. recession will negatively impact China's growth, and in turn, demand for base metals, analysts agree the dollar is falling and gold is rising.
Van Eeden said gold is still "on its way to $900 and $1000." Turk predicted gold will hit $850 early next year.
Gold for December delivery closed up $11.60 at $640.60 an ounce today after hitting a high of $641.60 on Nymex.

Chandigarh, Nov 26 Hallmarking on gold jewellery shall be made mandatory from January 1, 2008 by the government, Mr Y P Singh, Additional Director General , Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) said today.Addressing a seminar on hallmarking of gold/silver jewellery, organized by BIS here, he informed that in order to promote gold hallmarking among consumers and bring more jewellers under assaying ambit, BIS is planning to spread its network of assaying and hallmarking centres in the country. Thirty five additional assaying centres will be set up by March next year, he added.The government shall be giving one time financial incentive of 15 per cent of the cost of machinery and equipments subject to maximum of Rs 15 lakhs per centre for hallmarking, he added.Mr Singh informed that according to an estimate there are more than three lakh jewellery retailers, manufacturers and over 100 large-scale units manufacturing jewellery in the country. He informed that BIS had conducted a market survey on 120 samples drawn from eight cities, which revealed failure of 88 per cent samples with average purity shortage of 11 per cent.Another market survey revealed that more than 90 per cent samples failed against the purity declared as wide as 44.66 per cent and average shortage of 13.5 per cent . In Chandigarh, all the 10 samples drawn failed with maximum shortage in purity of 18.71 per cent and average shortage of 10.4 per cent.Mr Singh said that uptil October 31 this year, 2,708 gold hallmarking licenses had been issued by BIS in the country. About 162 lakh pieces of gold, silver and artefacts had been hallmarked uptil October this year.

By Reuters
Sunday November 26, 10:05 PM
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Oil producing nations are exploiting oil consuming countries with high oil prices and India is being deprived of 1 percent of economic growth because of costly oil, its finance minister said on Sunday.
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told a regional World Economic Forum that speculation was driving oil prices, as prices had fallen from near $80 a barrel to $58 when there had been no change in demand and little change in supply.
"I continue to say that it is speculation driven and the world must come to some kind of understanding between oil producing countries and oil consuming countries to how these shocks can be reduced. We are at risk here," he said.
India imports 70 percent of its oil. The Asian Development Bank says every $10 rise in average global oil prices over a one-year period hurts Asia's economic growth by 0.6 percentage points.
"The world must come to terms with the fact that oil producing countries are exploiting the requirement of oil consuming countries," Chidambaram said.
"India's being robbed of at least 1 percent of growth because of high oil prices."
India's economy, Asia's fourth largest, is forecast to grow about 8 percent in the fiscal year to March 2007, although the government is keen to boost this to nearer 10 percent to bring down its fiscal deficit and lift nearly a quarter of the population out of poverty.
Oil's descent from a record of $78.40 in July prompted OPEC in October to cut oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Nov. 1.
Prices over the past few weeks have dipped below $55 before rebounding to about $60 on Friday.
"It's not in our hands. Until we search for more oil and gas reserves we are dependent on the world," Chidambaram said.

Researchers use genetics of wheat to boost its nutrients WASHINGTON -- Scientists have found a genetic way to boost the protein, zinc, and iron content in wheat, an achievement that could help bring more nutritious food to many millions of people worldwide.

ECB MAY HIKE INT RATE......................BE CAUTIOUS

Euro breaks above $1.30 for first time since April 2005...........Bullion follows Up direction

New Delhi, Nov 24 - The Forward Markets Commission [FMC] would look into alleged speculative actions, if any, in maize trading on exchanges in recent days, assured Finance Minister P Chidambaram here. FMC is the regulator for the commodities futures exchanges.
Chidambaram said the Cabinet did discuss existing price trend in commodities in its recent meet, but the issue [misconduct in maize trading] did not come up for special focus. If required, the FMC will conduct an enquiry, he added.
Chidambaram said though sugar and wheat price have come down marginally, but the satisfactory level has yet not arrived. Commenting on the soaring trend in pulses, Chidambaram said dwindling supplies have forced the rise

Traders be cautious as US Market will be close on Thrusday and Friday as Thanks Giving Holiday in US. Japan is Closed on Friday. LME movement will be over by 6.00 PM IST.Dont take any fresh positions to Avoid Dull markets till monday.

The global copper market recorded a 228,000 metric ton surplus in the first nine months of 2006, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.Chinese output rose by 372,000 tons, Indian, Zambian and Japanese production rose by 101,000 tons, 68,000 tons and 107,000 tons respectively compared with the comparable months of 2005, the WBMS said.Consumption in the Jan. to Sept. period stood at 12.81 million tons, up almost 2% on the year.Chinese consumption fell by 6.9% to 2.61 million tons due to lower demand for imported copper, the WBMS said.

The Precious metal markets have been trending higher for the last few weeks, even though the U.S. stock market managed to climb to new multi-month highs. The week started on Monday morning with strong physical demand which allowed the metals to neutralize most of the losses seen last Friday. A combination of a weakening dollar, stronger energy pricing and speculative short covering helped create a solid base from which gold and silver were able to rally on Wednesday right up to key technical resistance. Volume continues to remain muted but most experts agree that once the holiday period in the United States ends volume should pick up considerably. Platinum was the bell of the ball this week trading from an intra-day low on Friday of $1137, to an intra-day high on Tuesday of $1289, representing a $152.00 move in less than 3 trading days. Profit taking late in the session on Tuesday spilled over to Wednesday as the platinum market closed $132.00 off its intra-day high. The key driving force as we head into the last six weeks of the year may be the U.S. dollar as many traders are starting to speculate that new lows maybe right around the corner.GOLD:Monex spot gold prices opened the week at $624 . . . traded as high as $634 on Wednesday and as low as $620 on Monday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Wednesday was $629, up $7 for the week. Gold support is now anticipated at $622, then $614, and then $506 . . . and resistance anticipated at $632, then $638, and then $650.SILVER:Monex spot silver prices opened the week at $12.92 . . . traded as high as $13.24 on Wednesday and as low as $12.73 on Monday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Wednesday was $13.06 up $.28 for the week. Silver support is now anticipated at $12.80, then $12.45, and then $11.87 . . . and resistance anticipated at $13.25, then $13.40, and then $13.85.PLATINUM:Monex spot platinum prices opened the week at $1,237 . . . traded as high as $1,289 on Tuesday and as low as $1,149 on Wednesday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Wednesday was $1,157, down $32 for the week. Platinum support is now anticipated at $1,143, then $1,100, and then $1,080 . . . and resistance anticipated at $1,160, then $1,220, and then $1,265PALLADIUM:Monex spot palladium prices opened the week at $324 . . . traded as high as $333 on Tuesday and as low as $320 on Monday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Wednesday was $324, up $6 for the week. Palladium support is now anticipated at $317, then $305, and then $290 . . . and resistance anticipated at $338 then $365, and then $405.QUOTE OF THE WEEK:From Congressman Ron Paul's "Texas Straight Talk":"The death of economist Milton Friedman last week at the age of 94 marks a great loss for advocates of freedom everywhere. He was perhaps the most successful free-market economist of the 20th century, in terms of his real-world impact on politics and policy. Many modern politicians, including Ronald Reagan, considered him a major influence in their careers.Milton Friedman was a strong advocate of economic liberty who opposed government intervention in both the purely economic and broader social spheres of our society. He believed not only in laissez-faire capitalism, but also the larger cause of individual liberty in the political sense. I was proud to know Dr. Friedman for many decades, and considered him a friend. I can assure you that he was no ivory tower academic, but rather an engaging and active man who worked very hard to demonstrate the applicability of economics to everyday life. His death only underscores the sad lack of economics knowledge in Washington, however. Many of our elected officials at every level have no understanding of economics whatsoever, yet they wield tremendous power over our economy through taxes, regulations, and countless other costs associated with government. They spend your money with little or no thought given to the economic consequences of their actions. It is indeed a tribute to the American entrepreneurial spirit that we have enjoyed such prosperity over the decades; clearly it is in spite of government policies rather than because of them.The truth is that many politicians and voters essentially believe in a free lunch. They believe in a free lunch because they don't understand basic economics, and therefore assume government can spend us into prosperity. This is the fallacy that pervades American politics today. Our schools teach children virtually nothing about economics and personal finance, which leaves them woefully unprepared for the working world. It also creates whole generations of young Americans who are incredibly vulnerable to the worst pandering politicians.We cannot suspend the laws of economics or the principles of human action any more than we can suspend the laws of physics. Yet this is precisely what Congress attempts to do time and time again, no matter how many times history proves them wrong or economists easily demonstrate the harms caused by a certain policy. The nation would be well-served if Congress spent more time reading the works of Milton Friedman, and less time worrying about petty party spoils."This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Oil leak! January Crude Oil fell below $59 this morning, after the EIA announced that Crude Oil stocks rose by 5.1 million barrels last week. This was way above the 400,000 barrel gain most traders were expecting. A sizable build in Gasoline stocks and weather forecasts calling for average to above average temperatures in the eastern half of the US also weighed on Oil prices. The initial sell-off wiped out all of yesterday's gains from the slowdown of Oil movement through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline due to severe weather. However, some late day position squaring buying ahead of the long Thanksgiving holiday allowed the market to end the session well off the day's lows. Support for January Crude Oil comes in at $58.00, with resistance seen at $61.40. January Crude Oil closed at $59.24, down $0.93.
Going into the Thanksgiving holiday, Wheat futures ended on an up-note, as a purchase of US Soft Red Winter Wheat by Egypt had renewed the belief that US exports will soon pick-up steam. Egypt announced it bought 60,000 tons of US Wheat in addition to 120,000 tons of French Wheat. Floor sources also tied today's rally to unwinding of Corn/Wheat and Soybean/Wheat spreads. New-crop July Wheat led the way higher, as continued concerns about drought conditions in the Southern Plains have traders concerned about the state of the newly planted crop. Spread trading was active, as speculators continue to roll out of the December contract ahead of next week's first notice day on November 30th. Support for July Wheat comes in at $4.62, with resistance seen at $4.90. July Wheat closed at $4.87, up 12 1/2 cents.
Bears stand their ground! Gold and Silver prices ended little changed from yesterday, after tests of weekly highs were made in today's session. December Gold closed up 30 cents at $629, off a range of $627 to $635, low to high. Gold rallied along with the Euro versus the US Dollar early in the session, but Gold was unable to hold on to the gains, despite the Euro remaining firm into the New York dealing close. The bears rejected prices above $630 today, which suggests that Gold is not ready to break out of its trading range of $615 to $635. Momentum on the daily charts is sideways/down, as it has been since 11/13, but December futures have been unable to break down and close below critical support levels of $620, $610, and $600. Resistance remains at $630 and $637 respectively. Gold is likely to remain within the bounds of the well-worn trading range of the past few weeks.
December Silver futures lost 4 1/2 cents to settle $13.04. The session saw a high of $13.25 and a low of $13. Silver probed new weekly highs today, before losing its footing and falling into negative territory. The market did manage to hold the psychologically significant $13 per ounce level, despite the rejection of higher prices. Today's $13.25 high was the highest Silver price since 9/06, after which the market sold-off the next two weeks to trade below $11 per ounce. Silver bulls may need some time to break through the upper resistance at $13.50, as this price has been well-defended by bears in the past. Look for Silver to trade sideways while bulls regroup to attack resistance. Carl Christensen XPRESSTRADE analyst.

ALL MARKETS CLOSED TODAY DUE TO US THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY

US EIA: GASOLINE STOCK UP BY +1.4 M TO 201.7 M
US EIA:DISTILATE STOCK LESS BY -1.2 M TO 133.8 M
US EIA:CRUDE STOCK UP BY +5.1 M TO 341.1 M

Copper Drops as U.S. Housing Slowdown Seen Creating Oversupply Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper declined on speculation a U.S. housing slowdown has created an oversupply of the metal used in wires and pipes.

Platinum rose to a record in London on speculation a new investment fund for the metal will make it more accessible to investors, putting a squeeze on supply

Crude oil prices edge above $59/bl Crude oil prices staged a modest rally today on speculation that the OPEC cartel could announce further crude production cuts, dealers said.

Gold prices continued to gain on the bullion market today on sustained buying by stockists and retail customers amid firm overseas trend and rose further by Rs 10 at Rs 9180 per 10 gram.

Prominent business leader calls for Chilean copper miner Codelco privatization RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) --Influential Chilean businessman Horst Paulmann, the chief executive of Chilean retail giant Cencosud, has called for the privatization of the world’s largest copper miner, state-owned Codelco.

oil prices

LONDON (AFX) - Oil prices reversed yesterday's decline to trade back above 59 usd a barrel on news bad weather has interrupted oil supplies at Alaska's key export terminal and as traders looked to further draw downs in fuel stocks ahead of winter.
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At 9.18 am in London, front-month Brent North Sea crude contracts for January delivery were up 22 cents at 59.20 usd a barrel, after settling down 1 cent at 58.98 usd yesterday.
Meanwhile, New York light sweet crude contracts for January delivery were up 24 cents at 59.03 usd a barrel, after closing down 58 cents at 58.80 usd yesterday.
On Friday, December New York crude contracts expired at a 17-month low of 55.81 usd

zinc copper turnover

MCX sees highest turnover in copper and zinc futures
Mumbai, November 9, 2006 : MCX has registered highest turnover in copper and zinc futures contracts on its platform on Wednesday (trading ended at 11.55 pm including session I and II). The total turnover of copper traded on the exchange was Rs 1,548.27 crores in terms of value and 47,223 tonnes in volume terms.On Wednesday, the copper prices (November contract) touched an intra day high of Rs 334.25 per kg and an intra-day low of Rs 322 per kg witnessing a range of Rs 12.25 per kg. Meanwhile, open interest in copper has gone up.On Tuesday, it was 17,985 tonnes (in terms of volume), while it went up on Wednesday touching 24,990 tonnes indicating growing interest among participants.Besides copper, zinc also witnessed a record turnover on MCX as it touched Rs 958.12 crores (in value terms), while the turnover in volume was 47,170 tonnes. The turnover of the base metal was the highest so far on MCX.The price of zinc (November contract) touched an intra day high of Rs 207.65 per kg, while the intra day low was Rs 197. The open interest level for the commodity on Wednesday was 7895 tonnes. Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for public information. The information provided here is not guaranteed for its accuracy or completeness. It is solely meant for information dissemination and knowledge sharing. Neither MCX nor its employees accept any liability, whatsoever, for any trading decision and loss incurred or airing from the use of this publication. MCX or any of its affiliates makes no warranties as to the accuracy of information, or results to be obtained from its use.

Forecasters Look for Economy to Slow
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy has been battered by a bigger-than-expected slump in housing but will keep growing next year as consumers get relief from soaring energy costs.
The NABE panel predicted that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, would expand by 2.5 percent in 2007.That is down slightly from the previous survey in September which forecast that the economy would grow by 2.7 percent next year. The expectations for 2006 were also marked down with GDP growth now put at 3.3 percent instead of 3.4 percent forecast in the previous survey. The economy expanded by 3.2 percent in 2005 and 3.9 percent in 2004.A bigger-than-anticipated slump in housing was the primary reason for the reductions. The NABE panel said that housing construction would fall by 3.5 percent this year and an even larger 5.5 percent in 2007.Both of those figures are larger declines than the NABE forecasters had previously predicted. Both would represent quite a reversal from the 8.6 percent increase in residential investment for all of 2005 compared to 2004.Housing is currently in a steep slump following an extended five-year boom powered by the lowest mortgage rates in a generation. Sales of both new and existing homes, which set records for five straight years, have been falling. Construction of new homes and apartments has declined, with construction activity in October down 27.4 percent from a year ago.The Federal Reserve engineered the current economic slowdown with a two-year campaign to push interest rates up. The Fed's goal was to achieve a soft landing in which economic growth slowed enough to reduce inflation without bringing on a recession.The NABE forecasters predicted the Fed would achieve that soft landing. They saw consumer prices, which rose by 3.7 percent last year, rising by just 2.7 percent this year and an even lower 2.5 percent in 2007.Part of the good news on inflation will come from lower oil prices. NABE forecasters looked for a barrel of West Texas intermediate crude oil to sell for $60 at the end of this year, instead of the $70 they were forecasting two months ago. Crude oil was forecast to be at $56 per barrel at the end of 2007.The NABE panel forecast a 2.8 percent increase this year in core inflation, which excludes food and energy, and a 2.4 percent rise in 2007. All the inflation rates were measured from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next."Despite the hindrance of the housing correction, the economy is expected to continue gaining ground in 2007," said Carl Tannenbaum, NABE president and chief economist at LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO in Chicago.The slower growth will have an impact on the job market. The NABE panel forecast that the unemployment rate would rise from an expected average for all this year of 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent in 2007.The forecasters, however, said the fall in inflation pressures will mean that the Fed will not feel the need to raise interest rates further. They predicted that the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, will remain at the current 5.25 percent for an extended period. After raising rates at 17 consecutive meetings, the Fed has kept rates unchanged since August.The NABE panel said the central bank's next move would likely be to cut rates, once inflation pressures retreat further. The forecasters saw two quarter-point rate cuts occurring in the second half of next year.The latest NABE consensus survey was prepared from the responses of its forecasting panel submitted from Oct. 20 through Nov. 6. NABE, with 2,400 members, is a professional association for people who use economics in their work.

US Stocks Stall After 6-Day Rally; Exxon, Energy Shares Slide

A six-day rally in U.S. stocks stalled following declines in Asian and European equity markets, as speculation grew that economic and earnings growth will slow.
Exxon Mobil Corp. led energy companies lower after oil prices retreated on signs that mild temperatures in the U.S. Northeast may trim heating demand. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. slid after the company agreed to buy Phelps Dodge Corp. for $25.9 billion in the world's biggest mining takeover.
``At some point the market's going to care about the U.S. economy continuing to slow down and being a threat to earnings,'' said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 10.40, or 0.1 percent, to 12,332.16 at 10:23 a.m. in New York, threatening to end its longest winning streak in a year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.27 to 1401.47. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.93, or 0.1 percent, at 2447.79.
Following a six-day advance, the S&P 500's relative strength index today reached 71.56, which is above a threshold of 70 that indicates it has risen too far, too fast. The index identifies possible turning points for a security by calculating the degree by which gains outpace losses in a given time period.
Global Retreat
Stocks in Europe and Asia fell, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreating from a six-year high reached last week, while the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index posted its biggest drop since Sept. 11.
A streak of at least 10 percent profit expansion by S&P 500 companies is forecast to end this quarter, according to Thomson Financial on Nov. 17. Earnings will increase 8.5 percent, based on analysts' estimates.
An index of leading U.S. economic indicators rose in October. The Conference Board's index increased 0.2 percent after a revised gain of 0.4 percent in September that was four times larger than initially reported, the New York-based group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
A measure of oil-related companies declined 0.8 percent for the worst performance among 24 industry groups in the S&P 500. The shares make up 9.6 percent of the benchmark index.
Crude oil for January delivery fell 0.9 percent to $58.47 a barrel in electronic trading in New York.
Exxon slid 75 cents to $72.33. Chevron Corp. dropped 32 cents to $68.78.
M&A
A slew of mergers-and-acquisitions announcements kept the market from falling further.
Freeport dropped 69 cents to $56.71 after the company agreed to buy Phelps Dodge. Phelps Dodge stockholders will get $88 in cash and 0.67 share of Freeport. The deal values Phelps Dodge at $126.46 a share, 33 percent more than its last closing price. Shares of Phelps Dodge surged $26.56 to $121.58.
Charles Schwab Corp. climbed 29 cents to $18.85 after Bank of America Corp. said it will buy U.S. Trust, the private-banking arm of Schwab, for $3.3 billion in cash to lure wealthy clients. Shares of Bank of America added 12 cents to $54.97.
Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. gained 13 cents to $36.70 after the bourse bid for the remaining 75 percent of London Stock Exchange Plc it doesn't own.
Nasdaq, the largest U.S. electronic equity exchange, made its second attempt to buy the operator of Europe's biggest equity market. The offer values the U.K. exchange at about 2.7 billion pounds ($5.1 billion). LSE rejected the bid, saying it ``substantially undervalues the company.''
Nasdaq
Shares of billionaire Sam Zell's Equity Office Properties Trust rose $3.14 to $47.86 after Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's largest buyout fund, agreed to buy the top U.S. office landlord, for about $20 billion in the biggest private- equity deal in history.
Equity Office shareholders will receive $48.50 a share. Including assumption of Equity Office debt, the transaction is worth $36 billion, topping the $33 billion acquisition of hospital chain HCA Inc. announced in July.
Companies have announced about $1.51 trillion of U.S. deals this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, building on the busiest year for U.S. takeovers since 2000. Across the globe, mergers and acquisitions rose to a record $3.1 trillion.
Allergan
Allergan Inc. rose $5.75 to $118.25. Silicon breast implants made by the company will again be sold for cosmetic use in the U.S., after regulators ended sales restrictions imposed 14 years ago for safety reasons.
Microsoft Corp., the world's largest software-maker, rose 28 cents to $29.68 after Credit Suisse Group raised its stock recommendation for the company to ``outperform'' from ``neutral.''
``The stock can appreciate nearly 20 percent from current levels given increased confidence in our earnings estimates, strengthening market position in digital entertainment and the potential for revenue upside,'' analysts including Jason Maynard and Bryan McGrath wrote in a research note. They raised the stock's price estimate to $35 from $29.

armed man attack nigerian aid group

Armed men attack Nigerian aid group 2006/11
By KATHARINE HOURELD, Associated Press Writer 13 minutes ago
LAGOS, Nigeria - Armed men attacked the offices of a Nigerian aid group in the southern oil hub of Port Harcourt, killing one person and wounding another, the organization‘s head said Monday.
Asuni‘s group promotes conflict management and peace education in Nigeria and Ghana, and has spent recent years focusing on Nigeria‘s restive oil delta.
Eni said it intended to resume production soon at the Tebidada flow station, operated through Eni‘s subsidiary Agip. The facility has an output of 50,000 barrels a day.
"All personnel is in good health, and production will be restored shortly once the necessary checks have been completed," Eni said. A spokeswoman said she did not immediately know if any damage occurred in the takeover.
Eni‘s equity stake in oil output from the facility is about 9,000 barrels a day. Most of the rest is held by Nigeria‘s state-run company.
Since the beginning of this year, militant groups have attacked oil pipelines and taken oil workers hostage in violence that has cut about 25 percent of the country‘s usual crude output of about 2.5 million barrels daily. Civilian protesters have also taken over oil facilities to protest lack of jobs and development in the regions.
Despite Nigeria being Africa‘s biggest oil producer, most inhabitants of the oil-rich delta remain poor.