As we begin to look ahead to the opportunities ahead in 2007, it also pays to look back on lessons learned in the last year as well. Here are some lessons learned from trading that you can implement to take yourself to higher levels of prosperity in the year ahead.
1. Trading is a mirror of other elements of my life. If I am behaving in an undisciplined way outside of trading, my trading shows undisciplined behavior like not following stops. If I feel depressed about something in my personal life, my trading observations will not pick up as many opportunities as I cannot see the possibilities that I see when I am in a positive frame of mind. Use a journal to diagram issues in your trading that can allow you to not only be a more effective trader but also experience personal growth.
2. Treat every trade as both a potential loser and a potential winner. Know how to tell the difference when you're in it. . Think positively. Have confidence in yourself. If you don't feel good about what you're doing, change it immediately.
4. Never make a trade on a market that just completed a major move if the only reason for making the trade is that you just saw a major move and missed it. (Warning: Those most susceptible to this are the ones who did expect the move but made the trade earlier.)
5. Winning traders and losing traders experience the trading environment differently. It makes them feel different and as a result their actions consistently vary. In psychological terms, they interpret the market differently because they have a separate belief system in the way that they see themselves relative to the stock market. Change your belief system from the reactionary emotional beliefs of most losing traders to a more proactive unemotional approach.
6. Know when not to trade. This skill is just as important as knowing when to pull the trigger. Part of being a great trader is being a keen observer of what a stock is telling you. By committing to observe objectively, you give yourself permission not to trade until the conditions are right.
7. Don't trade for excitement or entertainment. Avoid the highs that come from quick profits or the lows that can appear after losses. If you have a sound system, it does not matter whether any particular trade makes a profit or a loss. What matters is that the probabilities over time are in your favor. You must remember that no system is perfect, and prepare for losses along the way. You should measure yourself on whether you followed your rules and executed your system, for both winning and losing trades. The process of trading is much easier when you focus on execution of a system rather than on whether each individual trade was right or not, because you take your ego out of the process. This makes you more rational and less emotional, which leads to better investment performance.
8. It is critically important to protect your psychological capital by not overtrading or playing for excitement instead of profits. This can cause you to be emotionally "drawn down", and then sit out, usually as a move just begins that could have been a big opportunity. Yet you miss the new big trend because you were financially and emotionally exhausted by overtrading in a tough market. As a result, you can't see through the negative emotions because you feel beat up by the markets. Managing your internal psychological state of mind is equally important as managing your financial position.
9. Be careful not to overreact to intraday news. It seems to me like every year, there are more whipsaws where the opening occurred in one direction but was then reversed with a close in the opposite direction. I like to do my preparation for each day's trading in advance after the previous day's close, so I know what the market structure looks like heading into the next day's trading. This allows me to move from a reactionary state to a more proactive posture. This helps position your mindset to capitalize on news-driven intraday volatility.
10. Accept total responsibility for the results of your trading. Remember that losers always look for somebody else to blame. Winners look to themselves particularly if they have to take a loss on some trades, as is inevitable for all traders and all systems. When you accept total responsibility, you commit that in any market environment you will find the way to win.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
QUOTES OF THE DAY
-->"YOU CAN'T PRODUCE A BABY IN ONE MONTH BY GETTING NINE WOMEN PREGNANT."
-->"IT IS NOT IMPORTANT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE MARKET WILL DO. IT IS ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT YOU WILL DO" .....RAJASEKHAR IYER
-->"SHORT TERM PLEASURE OF BOOKING PROFITS IS DETRIMENTAL TO CREATION OF WEALTH.".........NAWIN SINHA
Friday, December 29, 2006
Thursday, December 28, 2006
What is the definition of confidence? I define confidence as positive thoughts, feelings and actions reflecting your self-belief and expectations of your ultimate success. Success is never guaranteed, but self-doubt and negativity can ensure failure. When you believe in yourself, you move away from harmful distractions such as anxiety and fear, and you move toward a more effective performance focus. Today, we'll take a look at how to make sure you're confident enough to survive the trading game.
Aside from the obvious benefits, confidence also bolsters your internal security during trading slumps and gives you additional fuel to persevere through challenging periods. Self-belief promotes traders to create more ambitious performance targets, allowing for greater accomplishment. Traders who display low confidence tend to worry excessively about mistakes, lose focus on what's driving results, quit trading at the wrong times and get overly worked up about each new trade. Excess confidence can also be dangerous in causing a trader to overcommit capital and be subjected to too much risk when a position goes bad. So your goal should be to promote the internal confidence while still showing the external disciplines to prevent the ego from taking over the consistent execution of a trading method.
Here are seven tips to encourage greater confidence:
1. Frequently visualize a successful trading process. What goes into good trading for you? Make sure you see the preparation required, the focus you have during the trading day, and the continous learning from both winning and losing trades to keep getting more effective.
2. Increase your level of physical fitness, as this will enhance both your trading alertness and give a boost to your self-image simultaneously. Both of these elements make you a more confidence trader.
3. Make a list of your strengths. Review this list regularly to remind yourself of how successful you really are.
4. Eliminate negative thoughts and memories. When they occur, replace them with positive self-statements (for example, "I create my own luck" or "I have a good written plan of how I will execute my trades").
5. Have a general strategy going into each trading day. When you prepare the day before, you position yourself to be proactive and gain confidence as you implement your plan. How aware are you of what you're experiencing in your mind, body and soul at any moment? You need to set up a monitoring system at the end of each trading day, to summarize what you executed according to your rules and what you did not. Look for patterns in your behavior, that you can copy if they work for you, or minimize if they are costing you.
6. Create positive body language regardless of the gain or loss on that trading day. The way you act will often influence the way you feel for future trades. The more confident you feel, the more confidence you will show in your trading.
7. Improve on areas of weakness during preparation time and you'll create more confidence and belief during the trading day.
Focus on one of these seven tips at a time, until you can build that area as a habit in your routine. This will service to greatly improve your trading confidence over time.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 10:16 AM 0 comments
What is the definition of confidence? I define confidence as positive thoughts, feelings and actions reflecting your self-belief and expectations of your ultimate success. Success is never guaranteed, but self-doubt and negativity can ensure failure. When you believe in yourself, you move away from harmful distractions such as anxiety and fear, and you move toward a more effective performance focus. Today, we'll take a look at how to make sure you're confident enough to survive the trading game.
Aside from the obvious benefits, confidence also bolsters your internal security during trading slumps and gives you additional fuel to persevere through challenging periods. Self-belief promotes traders to create more ambitious performance targets, allowing for greater accomplishment. Traders who display low confidence tend to worry excessively about mistakes, lose focus on what's driving results, quit trading at the wrong times and get overly worked up about each new trade. Excess confidence can also be dangerous in causing a trader to overcommit capital and be subjected to too much risk when a position goes bad. So your goal should be to promote the internal confidence while still showing the external disciplines to prevent the ego from taking over the consistent execution of a trading method.
Here are seven tips to encourage greater confidence:
1. Frequently visualize a successful trading process. What goes into good trading for you? Make sure you see the preparation required, the focus you have during the trading day, and the continous learning from both winning and losing trades to keep getting more effective.
2. Increase your level of physical fitness, as this will enhance both your trading alertness and give a boost to your self-image simultaneously. Both of these elements make you a more confidence trader.
3. Make a list of your strengths. Review this list regularly to remind yourself of how successful you really are.
4. Eliminate negative thoughts and memories. When they occur, replace them with positive self-statements (for example, "I create my own luck" or "I have a good written plan of how I will execute my trades").
5. Have a general strategy going into each trading day. When you prepare the day before, you position yourself to be proactive and gain confidence as you implement your plan. How aware are you of what you're experiencing in your mind, body and soul at any moment? You need to set up a monitoring system at the end of each trading day, to summarize what you executed according to your rules and what you did not. Look for patterns in your behavior, that you can copy if they work for you, or minimize if they are costing you.
6. Create positive body language regardless of the gain or loss on that trading day. The way you act will often influence the way you feel for future trades. The more confident you feel, the more confidence you will show in your trading.
7. Improve on areas of weakness during preparation time and you'll create more confidence and belief during the trading day.
Focus on one of these seven tips at a time, until you can build that area as a habit in your routine. This will service to greatly improve your trading confidence over time.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 10:16 AM 0 comments
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Shanghai. December 20. INTERFAX-CHINA - China's plans to allow greater foreign participation and to streamline the gold industry are unlikely to impact short-term market supply or demand, but they are the first steps towards integrating the country's gold exchange into world markets, analysts say.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 12:59 PM 0 comments
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
INTERNATIONAL oil prices soared in 2006, reaching an all-time high of US$78,36 per barrel in August impacting negatively on non-oil-producing countries such as Zimbabwe.Fuel prices in Zimbabwe were very volatile this year with fuel dealers charging prices well above the Government-stipulated pricesFor the greater part of the year the country was caught in a fuel price spiral caused by shortages of foreign currency and rising international oil prices.
The rise in international oil prices came mainly on the back of political tensions in the Middle East as well as worries that members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries would be unable to increase output in the event of supply disruption from other major producers. Opec accounts for about 40 percent of the world's crude oil supplies, and currently production is at around 28 million barrels per day.
In the past, the steep rise in oil prices occurred mostly in the wake of disruptions to oil supplies, such as the first and second oil crises, the Gulf war, Iraqi war and terrorism concerns, etc.
The rise in oil prices has had an adverse impact on the world economy, particularly on non-oil-producing countries, as this translates into a corresponding rise in oil prices on the local market, and hence general rise in prices.
Furthermore, the trends in the international oil situation and oil prices are major factors that have a significant influence on world economic growth.
In Zimbabwe, fuel prices have risen from around $280 per litre six months ago to around $2 700 although the gazetted price remains at $335 per litre.
The volatility of the exchange rate on the parallel market has also led to speculative pricing, causing unwarranted price hikes.
In these difficult times, it is imperative for the authorities to be innovative and introduce measures that rid the fuel sector of the retrogressive arbitrage and rent seeking activities to establish some form of control.
In trying to mitigate the effects of oil prices, Zimbabwe has taken an aggressive campaign to look for substitutes in the form of biodiesel and coal bed methane.
In an effort to prevent any weakening of prices in 2007 Opec has unanimously agreed to cut output by a combined 500 000 barrels (2 percent) per day, with the move delayed until February 1 when the northern hemisphere winter season comes to an end.
This move was, however, against the warnings from the International Energy Agency, the oil consumers' club, that the previous cut of 1,2 million barrels agreed in October but not fully implemented was already leaving the market tight.
By postponing the further reduction until the peak demand period has passed, Opec was also responding to most importer nations' concerns that an immediate cut would drive prices higher.
Meanwhile, US government data released last week showed that crude oil stocks in the world's largest consuming economy had fallen by 4,3 million barrels as imports declined, while a monthly report from the IEA, an advisor to 26 industrialised countries, re-vealed that industrialised countries' crude oil stocks had declined by 40 million barrels in October.
These data in turn stand as evidence that the November 1 2006 production cut implemented by the oil cartel was impacting negatively on the economy, and that the approved February 1 2007 cut was going to exert further pressure.
However, some critics continue to question the organisation's ability to work as a whole, as they made reference to the similar failed December 2004 game plan.
The price of oil has fluctuated widely over the past 50 years and the first "oil shock" occurred when Opec members, acting partly in response to the United States' support for Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur war, agreed to control oil supplies and raised prices by more than 400 percentOil prices stabilised in the late 1970s at around US$25 per barrel, before rising to a new peak of around US$39 per barrel following the outbreak of war between Iraq and Iran in 1981,which severely disrupted supplies.
The peak, however, was short-lived and prices gradually declined in real terms over the next 20 years, with the exception of a brief upturn associated with the 1991 Gulf War.
By 1999, oil prices fell as low as $13 per barrel, equivalent in real terms to the price prevailing before 1973 due to improvements in supply. Prices began to firm from 2000, initially responding to cutbacks in Opec output and strong global demand, particularly from the United States and China
Posted by A.Himanshu at 3:09 PM 0 comments
Eastman Kodak Co.’s health group has raised prices on all its medical imaging films and related supplies; the second time Kodak done so in 2006. Kodak said the continued high costs of raw materials, especially silver, were the main reason for the 8% to 12% price increases.
“This year has seen unprecedented high costs for basic commodities such as silver. These costs continue to escalate,”president of Kodak’s health group, Kevin Hobert, said in a statement.
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Silver for March delivery sank 34 cents to $12.64 per ounce today on Nymex
Posted by A.Himanshu at 10:39 AM 0 comments
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -- Shares in Asian exporters such as Sony Corp. rose on Monday after tame U.S. inflation data reassured investors the world's top economy was heading for a soft landing, but miners fell on weaker base metal prices.
A regional share index touched the latest in a series of record highs and indexes in Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong extended their record-setting runs.
Financial bookmakers in London forecast the FTSE 100 index to open between 10 and 21 points lower.
On Friday, U.S. data showed consumer prices held steady in November, confounding forecasts for a small rise and reassuring investors that inflation was under control in the most important overseas market for Asian firms.
Sony shares rose 2.2 percent and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. gained 2.6 percent. In Seoul, car maker Kia Motors rose 1.5 percent.
Mining stocks such as global heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto fell after base metal prices faltered, but gains for financial stocks such as National Australia Bank nudged the S&P ASX 200 to its third straight record close.
Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.3 percent to its highest close in seven months. Toshiba Corp. gained 1.3 percent after its subsidiary Westinghouse Electric won a nuclear power contract in China estimated to be worth as much as $8 billion.
MSCI's broadest index of Asian shares outside Japan was up 0.4 percent at 0615 GMT, after earlier hitting a record, while Singapore's Straits Times and an index of Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland China firms, known as H-shares, also hit new peaks.
Seoul's benchmark index closed up 0.8 percent and Taiwan's benchmark index rose 1.1 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was 0.1 percent higher at the lunchtime break.
The dollar lost steam after gaining against major currencies last week when mixed economic data appeared to make it less likely that the Federal Reserve would start lowering interest rates early next year.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent on Tuesday at the end of a two-day policy meeting, so dealers are focusing on what Governor Fukui has to say.
"If Fukui suggests that the BOJ could raise rates in January, we could see the yen gain, as not everyone in the market is expecting a lift next month," said Toru Umemoto, chief forex strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.
The dollar bought around 117.95 yen at 0615 GMT, down a touch from late on Friday in New York. The euro firmed to around $1.3105.
March 10-year Japanese government bond futures fell 0.24 point to 134.08, after tumbling as much as 0.55 point on Friday. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 2.5 basis points to 1.685 percent.
Gold was trading around $617.50 an ounce.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 6:28 PM 0 comments
LONDON - OPEC on Monday said the world oil market shows signs of weakening in 2007 as economic growth slows, a problem the exporter group seeks to address through its decision last week to cut supply. In a monthly report, the group that pumps more than a third of the world's oil held its forecast for global demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day and said a weakening US economy posed risks to the outlook."Risks for oil demand appear to be more weighed on the downside, given the dangers to global economic growth emanating from a visibly weakening US economy," the report by OPEC economists at the group's Vienna headquarters said.The report follows a deal last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut supply by 500,000 barrels per day, or 2 percent, from February 1. Oil in New York has risen about $2 a barrel since the decision to stand at $63.18."This reduction has been scheduled to come into effect after the winter season, ensuring sufficient crude supplies during this strong demand period while addressing looming market imbalances for 2007," the report said.Forecasts for 2007, including a supply surge from non-OPEC countries of 1.8 million bpd -- the fastest growth in two decades -- point to "weakening fundamentals," it said.Rising supply from the Caspian, Africa and other regions would, if realised, reduce demand for OPEC oil to an average of 28.29 million bpd from 28.93 in 2006, OPEC said.The world economy will also grow more slowly. OPEC expects an expansion of 4.4 percent next year led by developing countries, down from 5.1 percent in 2006.Lower outputThe International Energy Agency, adviser to the industrialised world, said last week its own, slightly higher estimate of oil demand growth next year faced downside risks.But the agency, an adviser to 26 industrialised countries, urged OPEC to hold off on making a new supply reduction because existing supply curbs were already tightening the oil market.OPEC's decision last week to cut supply followed a deal it implemented in November to lower output by 1.2 million bpd to stem a slide in prices from July's all-time peak of $78.40.The report from OPEC added to estimates showing that members have yet to cut output by the full amount promised.OPEC's 10 members bound by supply targets, all except Iraq, lowered supply to 26.86 million bpd in November, OPEC's report said, citing secondary sources.That was down 552,000 bpd from October, but well above OPEC's target for November of 26.3 million bpd.A Reuters survey on December 6 found November supply from the 10 fell to 26.91 million bpd, down 730,000 bpd from October. Reuters
Posted by A.Himanshu at 6:24 PM 0 comments
LONDON — Oil prices continued to slide Tuesday, a day after a warm-weather forecast in the United States triggered the biggest one-day drop in a month.
Prices dropped 1.9 per cent on Monday, reversing last week's series of gains. It was the biggest dollar and percentage drop for the front-month contract since Nov. 16.
On Tuesday, light sweet crude for January delivery fell 37 cents (U.S.) to $61.84 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
February Brent at London's ICE Futures exchange fell 56 cents to $61.57 a barrel.Monday's price drop in the oil complex was led by heating oil, which dropped after the U.S. National Weather Service predicted above-normal temperatures for most of the country, the world's biggest energy user, for the rest of December.
Crude oil prices rose $1.41 a barrel last week, mostly because the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries agreed to cut production by a further 500,000 barrels a day starting February. The decision came on the heels of the cartel's October decision to remove 1.2 million barrels a day of production from the market.
While traders were initially skeptical of OPEC's ability to get members to comply with the October cut, a drop in production from most of the cartel's 11 members has given more weight to the last decision.
Crude had less of a fall than heating oil Monday, continuing to trade between $60 and $64 a barrel, a range it has been stuck in since the end of November.
The next planned event traders will focus on is the weekly U.S. inventory data from the Department of Energy, due Wednesday.
Stocks of crude oil and distillate, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to decline, while gasoline is expected to increase slightly.
In other Nymex trading Tuesday, heating oil futures fell 0.32 of a cent to $1.7175 a gallon, unleaded gasoline was down 0.4 of a cent to $1.6582 per gallon and natural gas futures rose 3.1 cents to $7.106 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 6:12 PM 0 comments
Monday, December 18, 2006
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held above $63 on Monday, as dense fog delayed crude imports to refiners in the world's largest energy consumer the United States.OPEC's plan to deepen oil output curbs from February also lent support.U.S. crude traded down 28 cents at $63.15 a barrel at 1052 GMT, after rising 92 cents on Friday to the highest close in two weeks. Tankers struggled for the fourth consecutive day on Sunday to deliver oil supplies to refineries in Houston and Texas City, which between them account for nearly 12 percent of U.S. refining capacity.The refineries also supply crude oil to pipeline systems for refineries in other parts of the country.The bad weather has caused intermittent delays along the 53- mile (85-km) Houston Ship Channel, although forecasters said the fog should lift early this week.Fog also affected imports to other refining centers along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.Some refiners have warned that they may need to slow fuel production due to the delays, but none so far have announced output reductions.OPEC CUTThe shipping disruptions could hit relatively high U.S. crude inventories, which may also soon start to show the effect of a 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective from Nov 1. OPEC last week decided to make a second output cut of 500,000 bpd, to start from February, to prevent stockpiles rising again after the northern hemisphere winter.OPEC's deal struck a balance between price hawks concerned about inventories, and others who worried that an immediate cut could leave markets short at the height of winter.A Reuters survey shows OPEC only met about two-thirds of its November cutbacks, so some analysts question whether fresh limits will be effective in supporting prices that have slid about 20 percent from a record over $78 in July."I'm not convinced OPEC's production cuts were enough to turn this market around," said Christopher Bellew, broker at Bache Financial in London.U.S. crude oil stocks fell a sharper-than-expected 4.3 million barrels last week, but still stand at their highest since 1998 for this time of year.Supplies of crude from Nigeria, already down by about a fifth because of militant attacks, have been further trimmed by gunmen who seized an oil platform operated by Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) in the Niger Delta, shutting its 12,000 bpd oil output, the company said on Saturday.Mild weather continues to limit the need for heating fuel in the United States. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast were expected to remain above average for at least the next five days, according to private forecaster DTN Mete
Posted by A.Himanshu at 6:05 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said he probably won't hold an election before 2008, giving himself more time to battle corruption and muster support.
``Next year is too early,'' Abdullah, 67, said in an interview at his home in Putrajaya, south of Kuala Lumpur. ``I have to prove that a lot of things can be done and have been done and we have succeeded.''
Abdullah, who must seek a fresh mandate by early 2009, said it's ``not easy'' to stamp out graft, which he called ``cancerous.'' Too few criminals end up in court even as the government investigates a ``very high'' number of cases, he said.
Abdullah may lose support at the next election, former premier Mahathir Mohamad said in October. Analysts say fuel price increases have eaten into incomes, pushing many into corruption. Before a poll, the premier may also have to mend relations in his ethnic coalition, where pro-Malay speeches by some leaders have stoked tensions with Chinese counterparts.
``How can he go to elections?'' said Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, director of the Institute of the Malay World and Civilization at the University of Malaysia. ``Basic economic issues could be decisive for urban voters who are really suffering. That has made a lot of people more corrupt.''
Abdullah said he's bolstered his team of investigators and warned officials of the dangers of taking bribes. Malaysia fell to 44th in the 2006 Corruption Perceptions Index from 39th last year, Transparency International said Nov. 6.
Not Happening
``We are doing as much as we can,'' Abdullah said in the Dec. 8 interview. ``If the perception goes on the basis of how many people we drag to court and gain a conviction, of course it doesn't seem to be happening.''
An independent inquiry ordered by Abdullah last year found ``corruption in the royal police force that permeates all levels of the organization.''
Abdullah came to power in October 2003 and led the Barisan Nasional coalition to a landslide election victory in March 2004. He expects his five-year 200 billion-ringgit ($56 billion) plan to improve education and health care, and build roads, ports and houses to fuel faster economic growth.
To deliver growth, Abdullah said he needs a sound racial and political platform.
Former Premier Mahathir, who picked Abdullah as his successor, in October accused him of achieving nothing since taking over, and last month's meeting of the ruling party, the United Malays National Organisation, strained ties within Barisan Nasional.
`Uneasiness'
UMNO, as the 60-year-old party is known, has more than 3 million members and is the biggest political group in the coalition.
Hishammuddin Hussein, head of UMNO's youth wing, said in his assembly speech the position of the ethnic Malay majority shouldn't be challenged and brandished a keris, a traditional Malay dagger. The Malaysian Chinese Association, part of Barisan Nasional, said the act created ``uneasiness'' among other races.
``I'm equally concerned'' about race relations, Abdullah said in the interview. ``I know the consequences of race problems and racial tensions, on the economy, on the social development, even on our future.''
Clashes between Malays, who make up about 60 percent of the nation's population of about 27 million, and ethnic Chinese in 1969 left hundreds dead on the streets of Kuala Lumpur. Two years later, the government introduced the New Economic Policy to give ethnic Malays privileged access to housing, education, jobs and company shares.
`Positive Sentiment'
Malaysia risks a return to racial unrest if the affirmative action policies are scrapped, Mahathir said in an Oct. 9 interview. Mahathir ruled Malaysia from 1981 to 2003.
Critics of the program say it drags on productivity and impedes competition. Under Abdullah, economic growth in Southeast Asia's third-biggest economy accelerated to 7.2 percent in 2004, then slowed to 5.2 percent in 2005.
Still, Abdullah's policies are good enough for many investors. The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index has jumped 23 percent this year, outpacing 14 out of 18 major global benchmark indexes worldwide tracked by Bloomberg.
``We have more in Malaysia than we've had for quite a few years,'' said Anders Damgaard, who helps oversee $500 million of assets, including $35 million in Malaysian securities, at Sydinvest Asset Management in Aabenraa, Denmark. ``There seems to be a positive sentiment towards Malaysia.''
The government has said expansion this year may beat its 5.8 percent forecast. Abdullah said growth in 2007 will be ``not too far away'' from the 6 percent target.
`Wild Card'
That's ambitious, say some analysts. The economy grew 5.8 percent in the three months to Sept. 30, the worst performance in three quarters. Slowing growth in the U.S., Malaysia's biggest trading partner, may next year damp demand for computer chips and other Asian-made goods.
``The wild card is how the export sector will perform,'' said Lee Heng Guie, chief economist at CIMB Securities Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur, who expects the economy to grow 5.6 percent in 2007. Abdullah ``is building the foundation for stronger growth'' beyond 2010, he said.
Malaysia aims to be a developed nation by 2020. Asked if he'll run for a second term, Abdullah said, ``We'll see. Why not?''
Abdullah must dissolve Parliament by May 17, 2009, in preparation for an election, or it will happen automatically on that date, according to the election commission. After Parliament is dissolved, an election must be held within 60 days.
Anwar Ibrahim
An election after 2007 sets up a possible return for former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who was arrested in 1998 and imprisoned for almost six years on corruption and sodomy charges.
Malaysia's Federal Court quashed the sodomy conviction in 2004 though upheld the corruption charge. Anwar is eligible for public office in 2008 and said in an interview last month that he plans to run for parliament at the next election.
Living costs have increased in Malaysia after the government raised fuel prices in February, the fifth time since May 2004, and state-controlled Tenaga Nasional Bhd. was allowed to raise power prices in June by 12 percent, its first rate increase in nine years.
Still, the prime minister ruled out cutting interest rates to encourage growth.
``No, no, no,'' he said. ``We are not planning on that at the moment.'' He said he won't cut gasoline prices either because crude oil costs haven't fallen far enough.
Malaysia's central bank has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.5 percent since April. Crude oil, at $61.30 a barrel, has fallen 22 percent from the record $78.40 on July 14.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 11:27 AM 0 comments
Monday, December 11, 2006
VIENNA, Austria (AP) _ To cut or not to cut? The mixed signals being sent by OPEC nations on the need for reducing output are keeping traders guessing ahead of the organization's meeting Thursday.
Prices have risen from recent lows to above $60 a barrel, removing some of the urgency behind calls from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production further when oil ministers meet in Nigeria.
At the same time, ministers are keeping a wary eye on inventories _ the amount of crude in stock in the United States and other major oil customers. The most recent complete figures, from the end of September, showed supplies in the major industrialized nations at 2.76 billion barrels. That represents 53 days of demand and is up from the 2.64 billion barrels being held at the same time last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
Those inventory levels _ the highest in eight years _ could speak for further cutbacks on the heels of OPEC's decision last month to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day. Oil minister Ali Naimi of Saudi Arabia, the OPEC powerhouse, said last week that 100 million barrels must be whittled from stockpiles in industrialized nations.
``The sense is that supply is still higher than demand, so another cut may be necessary,'' said Eshan Ul-Haq, chief analyst at Vienna's PVM Oil Associates, when asked what OPEC would likely decide at the meeting in Abuja.
Still, newer statistics indicate that the September inventory figures may not be revealing the true state of oil-market affairs.
The latest weekly snapshot from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, released last week, showed crude stocks in the world's largest petroleum consumer plummeted by 53.5 million barrels since the end of September. That nearly negated a record buildup of 56.7 million barrels accrued in the second quarter of the year.
That leaves a mixed picture at least for the United States _ crude stocks falling to their lowest level since June but remaining at a 12-year high for this time of year. Even considering that oil derivative inventories _ gasoline, diesel and heating oil _ have been falling, total oil and derivative stocks are at their highest level since 1998.
That complex picture _ and prices above the red line of $60 _ could lead the ministers to opt for something less than an immediate cut but more than maintaining the status quo.
OPEC acting Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo was hedging his bets Monday, saying it was too early to say whether the group will announce another cut to production.
``Its very premature to talk about cutting,'' he told Dow Jones Newswires. ``We need to look at more numbers and that's what we'll be doing in the next few days.
``We need to look at inventories, they've been very high, and production data.''
Frederic Lasserre, chief analyst at SG Securities in Paris, said ministers could decide in Abuja to call for a special meeting in January or February that would ``implement a cut in February or March or April'' _ looking ahead to the second quarter when demand traditionally falls after the high-consumption winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
According to Oil Movements, which tracks tanker shipments, OPEC has implemented only two-thirds of its planned 1.2 million barrel cutback. Lasserre said ``weak compliance'' with the November target also reduces the likelihood of a further immediate reduction.
``It would be dangerous to have another cut without implementing the first cut properly,'' he said, suggesting that OPEC's image as an effective price and supply regulator would suffer.
In addition, he said, OPEC ``might be short of ammunition if they announce a cut already'' _ leaving their list of options limited should a further reduction become necessary in the first or second quarter of next year.
Still, all options remain open.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, the Saudi ambassador to the United States, said last week his country sees $60 as an acceptable benchmark price _ and recent prices have surpassed that mark.
But not by a large margin. Oil was trading below $62 a barrel at midday Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A sudden and major downward turn would likely increase backing for traditional OPEC price hawks like Iran and Venezuela, which would like to see prices closer to $70.
In addition, $60 now is not $60 a year ago _ at least from the point of view of OPEC nations which have seen their buying power in Europe erode by the growing strength of the euro. That, says Ul-Haq, could also go into the mix of factors prompting decisions at Abuja.
``Many OPEC members are complaining, because they have to buy the bulk of their consumer goods in Europe,'' he said. ``Prices are still not high enough for them.''
Posted by A.Himanshu at 10:47 PM 0 comments
Definition: An index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical urban consumer. The index is intended to measure pure price change only; attempts are made to remove changes in price resulting from changes in quality.Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor StatisticsFrequency: MonthlyAvailability: Generally available the second week of the month immediately following the month for which data is being released; always released after the Producer Price Index.Reason: The rate of change of the CPI is one of the key measures of inflation for the U.S. economy. Acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy may be appropriate.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 5:16 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, December 5, 2006
VANCOUVER, BC--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 4, 2006 -- Ascendant Copper Corporation (TSX:ACX.TO - News) (Berlin:A0HMLE.BE - News) ("Ascendant" or the "Company") announced today the assay results from the first three diamond drill holes at its Chaucha copper project, Ecuador. These three exploration diamond drill holes were located along the southeastern edge of previously drilled zones of the Naranjos chalcocite enrichment zone. In the Micon International Co. Limited Technical Report (2), the Naranjos supergene blanket is estimated to have the drill indicated potential mineralization of 129 MT of 0.4% to 0.5% Cu and 0.02% to 0.03% Mo at a cut off of 0.3% Cu. This resource is based on 126 shallow (averaging approximately 100M in depth), small diameter (AX and BX) drilling accomplished by governmental agencies in the 1970s.
These three new exploration drill holes which were drilled to significantly greater depths discovered an extensive, well-developed, stockwork primary porphyry copper mineralization. The hydrothermal, primary copper and molybdenum mineralization is continuous and uniform in intensity from near the top of all three holes to bottom depths. Although no significant secondary enrichment was encountered, the style, intensity and uniformity of mineralization encountered suggest the presence of a major porphyry copper deposit lying to the south of the currently known Naranjos copper resource
Posted by A.Himanshu at 11:07 AM 0 comments
Proving, perhaps, that the weather has more to do with oil prices than Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries does, crude oil prices dropped on Monday after the National Weather Service in the United States said that temperatures in most parts of the US will likely be above normal for the next two weeks. The prices were down even though both Saudi Arabia’s oil minister and the president of OPEC made comments implying that the organization thinks the market is still oversupplied and that it will cut production again later this month.
Brent crude for January deliver was down 95 cents to $63.67 per barrel. Meanwhile, January contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude was 97 cents lower to $62.46 per barrel after dropping as far as $61.90 per barrel earlier in the session.
In the metals markets, gold dropped 0.2 percent to $644.30 per troy ounce as demand for bullion as an investment has gone up even as jewelry demand has dropped as prices have risen.
Among base metals, three-month aluminium was up to $2,832.5 per tonne at one point during the session and dealers expected that it could go as high as $3,000 per tonne before December options expire on Wednesday. By the end of the session, however, aluminium ended up 0.3 percent lower to $2,809.5 per tonne. Nickel dropped 1 percent to $22,550 per tonne, while copper was steady at $7,000 per tonne despite an increase of 4,500 tonnes in London Metal Exchange inventories.
Base metals prices were mixed, however, as zinc was 1.4 percent higher to $4,460 per tonne and lead gained 2.6 percent to $1,739 per tonne as LME stockpiles fell by 1,325 tonnes.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 10:58 AM 0 comments
Saturday, December 2, 2006
PRECIOUS METALS REVIEW - 12/01/06
A slowing U.S. economy . . . increasing inflation . . . a falling U.S.
Dollar . . . and rising gold and silver prices dominated the financial
news this week. On Tuesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke commented on an
"uncomfortably high" core inflation rate and said that inflation risks
still remain on the horizon. And, although the Commerce Department on
Thursday announced real consumer spending rose in October following two
"lukewarm months," there was news that other sectors of the U.S.
economy have not fared as well: Sales of new homes fell 3.2% in October
according to a Commerce Department report on Wednesday . . . while the
National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday that prices of existing
homes sold in October fell for the third straight month. The Labor
Department announced on Thursday that U.S. workers filing initial jobless
claims climbed by the highest amount in more than a year last week. On
Tuesday, the government reported that durable goods orders for expensive
items like cars and refrigerators posted the biggest drop in more than
six years in October. On Friday, the Institute of Supply Management
released a report showing that U.S. manufacturing shrank in November for
the first time in over three years. On Friday, the U.S. Dollar fell
sharply against other currencies, touching a new 20-month low against the
euro and a 14-year low versus the British pound.
In the precious metals markets this week . . .
GOLD:
Monex spot gold prices opened the week at $641 . . . traded as high as
$649 on Friday and as low as $633 on Tuesday . . . and the Monex AM
settlement price on Friday was $645, up $16 for the week. Gold support is
now anticipated at $637, then $630, and then $614.50 . . . and
resistance anticipated at $648.50, then $664, and then $682.
SILVER:
Monex spot silver prices opened the week at $13.46. . . traded as high
as $14.06 on Friday and as low as $13.44 on Tuesday . . . and the Monex
AM settlement price on Friday was $14.00, up $.96 (more than 7%) for
the week. Silver support is now anticipated at $13.85, then $13.50, and
then $13.24 . . . and resistance anticipated at $14.20, then $14.78,
and then $15.20.
PLATINUM:
Monex spot platinum prices opened the week at $1,181 . . . traded as
high as $1,185 on Monday and Tuesday and as low as $1,139 on Monday . . .
and the Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $1,157, unchanged for
the week. Platinum support is now anticipated at $1,148, then $1,130,
and then $1,097 . . . and resistance anticipated at $1,189, then $1,225,
and then $1,280.
PALLADIUM:
Monex spot palladium prices opened the week at $327 . . . traded as
high as $330 on Thursday and as low as $317 on Wednesday . . . and the
Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $327, up $3 for the week.
Palladium support is now anticipated at $322, then $315, and then $305 . . .
and resistance anticipated at $333.80, then $345, and then $360.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
From legendary market analyst and commentator Richard Russell, on his
Dow Theory Letters website this week:
"I can't emphasize strongly enough the importance of the dollar as the
world's reserve currency. Think of it -- the US continues to run
enormous trade and budget deficits, yet the rest of the world continues to
accept our fiat dollars, dollars that are not a claim on gold, dollars
that are not a claim on silver -- dollars that are not a claim on
anything! All the goods and merchandise and services that the US buys from
the rest of the world are bought with these fiat dollars. Dollars are
what the world has been trading with ever since World War II. Dollars
make up the great bulk of foreign reserves of almost every nation in the
world.
No other nation would be able to get away with what the US gets away
with. And it's all because the rest of the world accepts dollars, and
it's all because the dollar remains the world's reserve currency."
"Meanwhile . . . the US and the rest of the world are swimming in
liquidity. Private funds are in high-gear buying out corporations while
corporations are buying out or merging with other corporations. The
numbers are mind-boggling, and it appears that today's billion dollars are
simply yesterday's million dollars.
The enormous liquidity is finally beginning to trickle down to the man
on the street, which means that wages are now rising. This is worrying
Dr. Bernanke -- on the one hand it's nice to see the average family
doing better -- but on the other hand rising wages lead to inflation. A
little inflation is fine with the Fed, but rapid inflation puts the Fed
in a bad light and is not to be tolerated. The purchasing power of the
dollar may decline year decade after decade, but the death of the
dollar has got to be slow and subtle. In that manner, the populace can be
kept "dumb and passive." That's the Fed's way."
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 10:50 AM 0 comments
Friday, December 1, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- February gold fell by $1.30 to $651.60 an ounce Friday morning after climbing more than $11 in the previous session. "The fact that the yellow metal is inaugurating December at current levels (overbought or not) is in itself an accomplishment that was not looking likely back in August," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com. "That such a climb was almost entirely dollar-induced remains fairly clear." March silver added 1.5 cents to $14.13 an ounce, but March copper lost 3.05 cents to $3.165 a pound.
Posted by A.Himanshu at 8:28 PM 0 comments
Wheat rallies across the board! March Wheat futures closed 10 cents higher today to settle at $5.21 1/2 per bushel. Bulls were in control of the market the second the opening bell rung at the CBOT. Chicago Wheat has moved off its $5.60 high made on October 17th to test support after the news of the reduced wheat harvest spurned the rally that began mid-summer. However, the overall fundamental picture has not changed for Wheat as harvest this year is 15% lower than last year, resulting in an 11.2% decline in deliverable Wheat, stocks year over year. The collapse in the Dollar has also helped underpin the Wheat market, as export prices denominated in Dollars will look increasingly cheap to the international buyer. Momentum studies on the daily charts have March Wheat futures poised to test the upside in the short- term. Support can be found at $5.15 and $5 respectively with resistance pencilled in at $5.30 and the contract high at $5.60.
Gold futures soar on Dollar weakness. Metals prices seem to be trading in lockstep to Dollar weakness once again. The weaker Dollar/higher Gold paradigm is once again in play, as February Gold futures rallied $11.10 per ounce to close $652.90. Old resistance levels now are support, as the February Gold contract has broken out to the upside on the Dollar crashing to multi-year lows against the Pound Sterling and the Euro. The weak economic data for the US should support Gold, as the yellow metal tends to draw buyers when paper assets are unattractive. Support for Gold basis February comes in at $640 and $635 respectively, while resistance is likely to be found at $660 in the coming sessions.
Stocks rock! Neither higher energy prices nor geopolitical tension around the globe can keep corporate America down. The bulls showed life today, as December S&P futures tested the contract high of 1408.75 before selling-off into the close to finish at 1402.90, up 7 points on the day. Momentum on the daily charts is still overbought, but still pointing higher. The S&P 500 index is subject to selling pressure, but the bulls still are in control, as tests of support have found buyers in the face of bad economic news all over the headlines. The December S&P contract has support at 1400, 1390, and 1385 respectively. Resistance can be found at the contract highs of $1408.75. XPRESSTRADE Analyst Carl Christensen .
Posted by A.Himanshu at 8:09 PM 0 comments