LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held above $63 on Monday, as dense fog delayed crude imports to refiners in the world's largest energy consumer the United States.OPEC's plan to deepen oil output curbs from February also lent support.U.S. crude traded down 28 cents at $63.15 a barrel at 1052 GMT, after rising 92 cents on Friday to the highest close in two weeks. Tankers struggled for the fourth consecutive day on Sunday to deliver oil supplies to refineries in Houston and Texas City, which between them account for nearly 12 percent of U.S. refining capacity.The refineries also supply crude oil to pipeline systems for refineries in other parts of the country.The bad weather has caused intermittent delays along the 53- mile (85-km) Houston Ship Channel, although forecasters said the fog should lift early this week.Fog also affected imports to other refining centers along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.Some refiners have warned that they may need to slow fuel production due to the delays, but none so far have announced output reductions.OPEC CUTThe shipping disruptions could hit relatively high U.S. crude inventories, which may also soon start to show the effect of a 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective from Nov 1. OPEC last week decided to make a second output cut of 500,000 bpd, to start from February, to prevent stockpiles rising again after the northern hemisphere winter.OPEC's deal struck a balance between price hawks concerned about inventories, and others who worried that an immediate cut could leave markets short at the height of winter.A Reuters survey shows OPEC only met about two-thirds of its November cutbacks, so some analysts question whether fresh limits will be effective in supporting prices that have slid about 20 percent from a record over $78 in July."I'm not convinced OPEC's production cuts were enough to turn this market around," said Christopher Bellew, broker at Bache Financial in London.U.S. crude oil stocks fell a sharper-than-expected 4.3 million barrels last week, but still stand at their highest since 1998 for this time of year.Supplies of crude from Nigeria, already down by about a fifth because of militant attacks, have been further trimmed by gunmen who seized an oil platform operated by Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) in the Niger Delta, shutting its 12,000 bpd oil output, the company said on Saturday.Mild weather continues to limit the need for heating fuel in the United States. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast were expected to remain above average for at least the next five days, according to private forecaster DTN Mete
QUOTES OF THE DAY
-->"YOU CAN'T PRODUCE A BABY IN ONE MONTH BY GETTING NINE WOMEN PREGNANT."
-->"IT IS NOT IMPORTANT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE MARKET WILL DO. IT IS ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT YOU WILL DO" .....RAJASEKHAR IYER
-->"SHORT TERM PLEASURE OF BOOKING PROFITS IS DETRIMENTAL TO CREATION OF WEALTH.".........NAWIN SINHA
Monday, December 18, 2006
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said he probably won't hold an election before 2008, giving himself more time to battle corruption and muster support.
``Next year is too early,'' Abdullah, 67, said in an interview at his home in Putrajaya, south of Kuala Lumpur. ``I have to prove that a lot of things can be done and have been done and we have succeeded.''
Abdullah, who must seek a fresh mandate by early 2009, said it's ``not easy'' to stamp out graft, which he called ``cancerous.'' Too few criminals end up in court even as the government investigates a ``very high'' number of cases, he said.
Abdullah may lose support at the next election, former premier Mahathir Mohamad said in October. Analysts say fuel price increases have eaten into incomes, pushing many into corruption. Before a poll, the premier may also have to mend relations in his ethnic coalition, where pro-Malay speeches by some leaders have stoked tensions with Chinese counterparts.
``How can he go to elections?'' said Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, director of the Institute of the Malay World and Civilization at the University of Malaysia. ``Basic economic issues could be decisive for urban voters who are really suffering. That has made a lot of people more corrupt.''
Abdullah said he's bolstered his team of investigators and warned officials of the dangers of taking bribes. Malaysia fell to 44th in the 2006 Corruption Perceptions Index from 39th last year, Transparency International said Nov. 6.
Not Happening
``We are doing as much as we can,'' Abdullah said in the Dec. 8 interview. ``If the perception goes on the basis of how many people we drag to court and gain a conviction, of course it doesn't seem to be happening.''
An independent inquiry ordered by Abdullah last year found ``corruption in the royal police force that permeates all levels of the organization.''
Abdullah came to power in October 2003 and led the Barisan Nasional coalition to a landslide election victory in March 2004. He expects his five-year 200 billion-ringgit ($56 billion) plan to improve education and health care, and build roads, ports and houses to fuel faster economic growth.
To deliver growth, Abdullah said he needs a sound racial and political platform.
Former Premier Mahathir, who picked Abdullah as his successor, in October accused him of achieving nothing since taking over, and last month's meeting of the ruling party, the United Malays National Organisation, strained ties within Barisan Nasional.
`Uneasiness'
UMNO, as the 60-year-old party is known, has more than 3 million members and is the biggest political group in the coalition.
Hishammuddin Hussein, head of UMNO's youth wing, said in his assembly speech the position of the ethnic Malay majority shouldn't be challenged and brandished a keris, a traditional Malay dagger. The Malaysian Chinese Association, part of Barisan Nasional, said the act created ``uneasiness'' among other races.
``I'm equally concerned'' about race relations, Abdullah said in the interview. ``I know the consequences of race problems and racial tensions, on the economy, on the social development, even on our future.''
Clashes between Malays, who make up about 60 percent of the nation's population of about 27 million, and ethnic Chinese in 1969 left hundreds dead on the streets of Kuala Lumpur. Two years later, the government introduced the New Economic Policy to give ethnic Malays privileged access to housing, education, jobs and company shares.
`Positive Sentiment'
Malaysia risks a return to racial unrest if the affirmative action policies are scrapped, Mahathir said in an Oct. 9 interview. Mahathir ruled Malaysia from 1981 to 2003.
Critics of the program say it drags on productivity and impedes competition. Under Abdullah, economic growth in Southeast Asia's third-biggest economy accelerated to 7.2 percent in 2004, then slowed to 5.2 percent in 2005.
Still, Abdullah's policies are good enough for many investors. The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index has jumped 23 percent this year, outpacing 14 out of 18 major global benchmark indexes worldwide tracked by Bloomberg.
``We have more in Malaysia than we've had for quite a few years,'' said Anders Damgaard, who helps oversee $500 million of assets, including $35 million in Malaysian securities, at Sydinvest Asset Management in Aabenraa, Denmark. ``There seems to be a positive sentiment towards Malaysia.''
The government has said expansion this year may beat its 5.8 percent forecast. Abdullah said growth in 2007 will be ``not too far away'' from the 6 percent target.
`Wild Card'
That's ambitious, say some analysts. The economy grew 5.8 percent in the three months to Sept. 30, the worst performance in three quarters. Slowing growth in the U.S., Malaysia's biggest trading partner, may next year damp demand for computer chips and other Asian-made goods.
``The wild card is how the export sector will perform,'' said Lee Heng Guie, chief economist at CIMB Securities Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur, who expects the economy to grow 5.6 percent in 2007. Abdullah ``is building the foundation for stronger growth'' beyond 2010, he said.
Malaysia aims to be a developed nation by 2020. Asked if he'll run for a second term, Abdullah said, ``We'll see. Why not?''
Abdullah must dissolve Parliament by May 17, 2009, in preparation for an election, or it will happen automatically on that date, according to the election commission. After Parliament is dissolved, an election must be held within 60 days.
Anwar Ibrahim
An election after 2007 sets up a possible return for former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who was arrested in 1998 and imprisoned for almost six years on corruption and sodomy charges.
Malaysia's Federal Court quashed the sodomy conviction in 2004 though upheld the corruption charge. Anwar is eligible for public office in 2008 and said in an interview last month that he plans to run for parliament at the next election.
Living costs have increased in Malaysia after the government raised fuel prices in February, the fifth time since May 2004, and state-controlled Tenaga Nasional Bhd. was allowed to raise power prices in June by 12 percent, its first rate increase in nine years.
Still, the prime minister ruled out cutting interest rates to encourage growth.
``No, no, no,'' he said. ``We are not planning on that at the moment.'' He said he won't cut gasoline prices either because crude oil costs haven't fallen far enough.
Malaysia's central bank has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.5 percent since April. Crude oil, at $61.30 a barrel, has fallen 22 percent from the record $78.40 on July 14.
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Monday, December 11, 2006
VIENNA, Austria (AP) _ To cut or not to cut? The mixed signals being sent by OPEC nations on the need for reducing output are keeping traders guessing ahead of the organization's meeting Thursday.
Prices have risen from recent lows to above $60 a barrel, removing some of the urgency behind calls from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production further when oil ministers meet in Nigeria.
At the same time, ministers are keeping a wary eye on inventories _ the amount of crude in stock in the United States and other major oil customers. The most recent complete figures, from the end of September, showed supplies in the major industrialized nations at 2.76 billion barrels. That represents 53 days of demand and is up from the 2.64 billion barrels being held at the same time last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
Those inventory levels _ the highest in eight years _ could speak for further cutbacks on the heels of OPEC's decision last month to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day. Oil minister Ali Naimi of Saudi Arabia, the OPEC powerhouse, said last week that 100 million barrels must be whittled from stockpiles in industrialized nations.
``The sense is that supply is still higher than demand, so another cut may be necessary,'' said Eshan Ul-Haq, chief analyst at Vienna's PVM Oil Associates, when asked what OPEC would likely decide at the meeting in Abuja.
Still, newer statistics indicate that the September inventory figures may not be revealing the true state of oil-market affairs.
The latest weekly snapshot from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, released last week, showed crude stocks in the world's largest petroleum consumer plummeted by 53.5 million barrels since the end of September. That nearly negated a record buildup of 56.7 million barrels accrued in the second quarter of the year.
That leaves a mixed picture at least for the United States _ crude stocks falling to their lowest level since June but remaining at a 12-year high for this time of year. Even considering that oil derivative inventories _ gasoline, diesel and heating oil _ have been falling, total oil and derivative stocks are at their highest level since 1998.
That complex picture _ and prices above the red line of $60 _ could lead the ministers to opt for something less than an immediate cut but more than maintaining the status quo.
OPEC acting Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo was hedging his bets Monday, saying it was too early to say whether the group will announce another cut to production.
``Its very premature to talk about cutting,'' he told Dow Jones Newswires. ``We need to look at more numbers and that's what we'll be doing in the next few days.
``We need to look at inventories, they've been very high, and production data.''
Frederic Lasserre, chief analyst at SG Securities in Paris, said ministers could decide in Abuja to call for a special meeting in January or February that would ``implement a cut in February or March or April'' _ looking ahead to the second quarter when demand traditionally falls after the high-consumption winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
According to Oil Movements, which tracks tanker shipments, OPEC has implemented only two-thirds of its planned 1.2 million barrel cutback. Lasserre said ``weak compliance'' with the November target also reduces the likelihood of a further immediate reduction.
``It would be dangerous to have another cut without implementing the first cut properly,'' he said, suggesting that OPEC's image as an effective price and supply regulator would suffer.
In addition, he said, OPEC ``might be short of ammunition if they announce a cut already'' _ leaving their list of options limited should a further reduction become necessary in the first or second quarter of next year.
Still, all options remain open.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, the Saudi ambassador to the United States, said last week his country sees $60 as an acceptable benchmark price _ and recent prices have surpassed that mark.
But not by a large margin. Oil was trading below $62 a barrel at midday Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A sudden and major downward turn would likely increase backing for traditional OPEC price hawks like Iran and Venezuela, which would like to see prices closer to $70.
In addition, $60 now is not $60 a year ago _ at least from the point of view of OPEC nations which have seen their buying power in Europe erode by the growing strength of the euro. That, says Ul-Haq, could also go into the mix of factors prompting decisions at Abuja.
``Many OPEC members are complaining, because they have to buy the bulk of their consumer goods in Europe,'' he said. ``Prices are still not high enough for them.''
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Definition: An index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical urban consumer. The index is intended to measure pure price change only; attempts are made to remove changes in price resulting from changes in quality.Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor StatisticsFrequency: MonthlyAvailability: Generally available the second week of the month immediately following the month for which data is being released; always released after the Producer Price Index.Reason: The rate of change of the CPI is one of the key measures of inflation for the U.S. economy. Acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy may be appropriate.
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Tuesday, December 5, 2006
VANCOUVER, BC--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 4, 2006 -- Ascendant Copper Corporation (TSX:ACX.TO - News) (Berlin:A0HMLE.BE - News) ("Ascendant" or the "Company") announced today the assay results from the first three diamond drill holes at its Chaucha copper project, Ecuador. These three exploration diamond drill holes were located along the southeastern edge of previously drilled zones of the Naranjos chalcocite enrichment zone. In the Micon International Co. Limited Technical Report (2), the Naranjos supergene blanket is estimated to have the drill indicated potential mineralization of 129 MT of 0.4% to 0.5% Cu and 0.02% to 0.03% Mo at a cut off of 0.3% Cu. This resource is based on 126 shallow (averaging approximately 100M in depth), small diameter (AX and BX) drilling accomplished by governmental agencies in the 1970s.
These three new exploration drill holes which were drilled to significantly greater depths discovered an extensive, well-developed, stockwork primary porphyry copper mineralization. The hydrothermal, primary copper and molybdenum mineralization is continuous and uniform in intensity from near the top of all three holes to bottom depths. Although no significant secondary enrichment was encountered, the style, intensity and uniformity of mineralization encountered suggest the presence of a major porphyry copper deposit lying to the south of the currently known Naranjos copper resource
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Proving, perhaps, that the weather has more to do with oil prices than Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries does, crude oil prices dropped on Monday after the National Weather Service in the United States said that temperatures in most parts of the US will likely be above normal for the next two weeks. The prices were down even though both Saudi Arabia’s oil minister and the president of OPEC made comments implying that the organization thinks the market is still oversupplied and that it will cut production again later this month.
Brent crude for January deliver was down 95 cents to $63.67 per barrel. Meanwhile, January contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude was 97 cents lower to $62.46 per barrel after dropping as far as $61.90 per barrel earlier in the session.
In the metals markets, gold dropped 0.2 percent to $644.30 per troy ounce as demand for bullion as an investment has gone up even as jewelry demand has dropped as prices have risen.
Among base metals, three-month aluminium was up to $2,832.5 per tonne at one point during the session and dealers expected that it could go as high as $3,000 per tonne before December options expire on Wednesday. By the end of the session, however, aluminium ended up 0.3 percent lower to $2,809.5 per tonne. Nickel dropped 1 percent to $22,550 per tonne, while copper was steady at $7,000 per tonne despite an increase of 4,500 tonnes in London Metal Exchange inventories.
Base metals prices were mixed, however, as zinc was 1.4 percent higher to $4,460 per tonne and lead gained 2.6 percent to $1,739 per tonne as LME stockpiles fell by 1,325 tonnes.
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Saturday, December 2, 2006
PRECIOUS METALS REVIEW - 12/01/06
A slowing U.S. economy . . . increasing inflation . . . a falling U.S.
Dollar . . . and rising gold and silver prices dominated the financial
news this week. On Tuesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke commented on an
"uncomfortably high" core inflation rate and said that inflation risks
still remain on the horizon. And, although the Commerce Department on
Thursday announced real consumer spending rose in October following two
"lukewarm months," there was news that other sectors of the U.S.
economy have not fared as well: Sales of new homes fell 3.2% in October
according to a Commerce Department report on Wednesday . . . while the
National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday that prices of existing
homes sold in October fell for the third straight month. The Labor
Department announced on Thursday that U.S. workers filing initial jobless
claims climbed by the highest amount in more than a year last week. On
Tuesday, the government reported that durable goods orders for expensive
items like cars and refrigerators posted the biggest drop in more than
six years in October. On Friday, the Institute of Supply Management
released a report showing that U.S. manufacturing shrank in November for
the first time in over three years. On Friday, the U.S. Dollar fell
sharply against other currencies, touching a new 20-month low against the
euro and a 14-year low versus the British pound.
In the precious metals markets this week . . .
GOLD:
Monex spot gold prices opened the week at $641 . . . traded as high as
$649 on Friday and as low as $633 on Tuesday . . . and the Monex AM
settlement price on Friday was $645, up $16 for the week. Gold support is
now anticipated at $637, then $630, and then $614.50 . . . and
resistance anticipated at $648.50, then $664, and then $682.
SILVER:
Monex spot silver prices opened the week at $13.46. . . traded as high
as $14.06 on Friday and as low as $13.44 on Tuesday . . . and the Monex
AM settlement price on Friday was $14.00, up $.96 (more than 7%) for
the week. Silver support is now anticipated at $13.85, then $13.50, and
then $13.24 . . . and resistance anticipated at $14.20, then $14.78,
and then $15.20.
PLATINUM:
Monex spot platinum prices opened the week at $1,181 . . . traded as
high as $1,185 on Monday and Tuesday and as low as $1,139 on Monday . . .
and the Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $1,157, unchanged for
the week. Platinum support is now anticipated at $1,148, then $1,130,
and then $1,097 . . . and resistance anticipated at $1,189, then $1,225,
and then $1,280.
PALLADIUM:
Monex spot palladium prices opened the week at $327 . . . traded as
high as $330 on Thursday and as low as $317 on Wednesday . . . and the
Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $327, up $3 for the week.
Palladium support is now anticipated at $322, then $315, and then $305 . . .
and resistance anticipated at $333.80, then $345, and then $360.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
From legendary market analyst and commentator Richard Russell, on his
Dow Theory Letters website this week:
"I can't emphasize strongly enough the importance of the dollar as the
world's reserve currency. Think of it -- the US continues to run
enormous trade and budget deficits, yet the rest of the world continues to
accept our fiat dollars, dollars that are not a claim on gold, dollars
that are not a claim on silver -- dollars that are not a claim on
anything! All the goods and merchandise and services that the US buys from
the rest of the world are bought with these fiat dollars. Dollars are
what the world has been trading with ever since World War II. Dollars
make up the great bulk of foreign reserves of almost every nation in the
world.
No other nation would be able to get away with what the US gets away
with. And it's all because the rest of the world accepts dollars, and
it's all because the dollar remains the world's reserve currency."
"Meanwhile . . . the US and the rest of the world are swimming in
liquidity. Private funds are in high-gear buying out corporations while
corporations are buying out or merging with other corporations. The
numbers are mind-boggling, and it appears that today's billion dollars are
simply yesterday's million dollars.
The enormous liquidity is finally beginning to trickle down to the man
on the street, which means that wages are now rising. This is worrying
Dr. Bernanke -- on the one hand it's nice to see the average family
doing better -- but on the other hand rising wages lead to inflation. A
little inflation is fine with the Fed, but rapid inflation puts the Fed
in a bad light and is not to be tolerated. The purchasing power of the
dollar may decline year decade after decade, but the death of the
dollar has got to be slow and subtle. In that manner, the populace can be
kept "dumb and passive." That's the Fed's way."
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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